Italian Serie A

Genoa vs Napoli prediction

0 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Genoa vs Napoli (Serie A), 23/08/2026, finished 0-2: Napoli won. Before the match Jarvis gave Genoa 21%, the draw 32% and Napoli 48%; the actual result had a 48% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Genoa

21%

Draw

32%

Napoli

48%

Actual result: Genoa 0 – 2 Napoli · Napoli winJarvis gave this outcome: 48% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Genoa, negative favours Napoli) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Genoa - Napoli)-0.54

Expected total goals2.10

Expected goals Genoa / Napoli0.78 / 1.32

Both teams to score (yes / no)41.3% / 58.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 63.7%

Over 2.5 goals 35.1%

Over 3.5 goals 16.2%

First half

First-half result (Genoa / draw / Napoli)17.0% / 49.4% / 33.6%

A goal in the first half60.2%

Two or more in the first half25.5%

Half-time then full-time

Napoli lead at half-time then Napoli win28.8%

Level at half-time then draw22.0%

Level at half-time then Napoli win18.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Genoa's side

Genoa −2.04.1%

Genoa −1.755.4%

Genoa −1.56.7%

Genoa −1.2510.2%

Genoa −1.013.6%

Genoa −0.7517.1%

Genoa −0.520.6%

Genoa −0.2528.5%

Genoa draw no bet (0.0)36.3%

Genoa +0.2544.2%

Genoa +0.552.1%

Genoa +0.7558.3%

Genoa +1.064.4%

Genoa +1.576.6%

Genoa +2.084.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Genoa win4.87

Draw3.17

Napoli win2.09

Over 2.52.85

Under 2.51.54

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Genoa wins by more than 1 goals7%

Napoli wins by more than 1 goals23%

Corners

Expected total corners8.6

6.5+ corners in the match49%

Cards

Expected total cards1.9

2.5+ cards in the match28%