French Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lyon prediction

0 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Toulouse vs Lyon (Ligue 1), 23/08/2026, finished 0-2: Lyon won. Before the match Jarvis gave Toulouse 40%, the draw 30% and Lyon 30%; the actual result had a 30% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.5.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Toulouse

40%

Draw

30%

Lyon

30%

Actual result: Toulouse 0 – 2 Lyon · Lyon winJarvis gave this outcome: 30%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Toulouse, negative favours Lyon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Toulouse - Lyon)+0.21

Expected total goals2.52

Expected goals Toulouse / Lyon1.37 / 1.16

Both teams to score (yes / no)52.6% / 47.4%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 73.3%

Over 2.5 goals 46.2%

Over 3.5 goals 24.7%

First half

First-half result (Toulouse / draw / Lyon)30.2% / 45.7% / 24.1%

A goal in the first half66.6%

Two or more in the first half32.6%

Half-time then full-time

Toulouse lead at half-time then Toulouse win24.0%

Level at half-time then draw18.9%

Lyon lead at half-time then Lyon win17.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Toulouse's side

Toulouse −2.013.3%

Toulouse −1.7516.3%

Toulouse −1.519.4%

Toulouse −1.2524.6%

Toulouse −1.029.8%

Toulouse −0.7534.9%

Toulouse −0.540.1%

Toulouse −0.2547.6%

Toulouse draw no bet (0.0)55.0%

Toulouse +0.2562.4%

Toulouse +0.569.8%

Toulouse +0.7574.2%

Toulouse +1.078.5%

Toulouse +1.587.1%

Toulouse +2.091.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Toulouse win2.49

Draw3.36

Lyon win3.32

Over 2.52.16

Under 2.51.86

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Toulouse wins by more than 1 goals19%

Lyon wins by more than 1 goals13%

Corners

Expected total corners9.7

6.5+ corners in the match51%

Cards

Expected total cards2.2

2.5+ cards in the match38%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Toulouse

vs TroyesSat 24/10, 22:15 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27
vs Marseille (away)Mon 02/11, 02:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27

Lyon

vs NiceMon 19/10, 01:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27
vs TSG Hoffenheim (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 23/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Ligue 1 table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	AS Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Stade Rennais	6	+2	13
4	Lyon	6	+7	11
5	Paris FC	6	+4	11
6	Paris Saint-Germain	6	+3	11
7	Toulouse	7	+1	9
8	Brest	6	+3	8

See the full Ligue 1 table