Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Auxerre
32%
Draw
30%
Nice
37%
Actual result: Auxerre 1 – 0 Nice · Auxerre winJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Auxerre, negative favours Nice) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Auxerre - Nice)-0.11
Expected total goals2.42
Expected goals Auxerre / Nice1.16 / 1.27
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.7% / 49.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.1%
Over 2.5 goals 43.6%
Over 3.5 goals 22.6%
First half
First-half result (Auxerre / draw / Nice)25.1% / 46.6% / 28.3%
A goal in the first half65.2%
Two or more in the first half30.8%
Half-time then full-time
Nice lead at half-time then Nice win22.2%
Level at half-time then draw19.6%
Auxerre lead at half-time then Auxerre win18.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Auxerre's side
Auxerre −2.09.1%
Auxerre −1.7511.4%
Auxerre −1.513.8%
Auxerre −1.2518.4%
Auxerre −1.022.9%
Auxerre −0.7527.5%
Auxerre −0.532.1%
Auxerre −0.2539.7%
Auxerre draw no bet (0.0)47.3%
Auxerre +0.2554.9%
Auxerre +0.562.5%
Auxerre +0.7567.6%
Auxerre +1.072.7%
Auxerre +1.582.8%
Auxerre +2.088.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Auxerre win3.11
Draw3.29
Nice win2.67
Over 2.52.29
Under 2.51.77
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Auxerre wins by more than 1 goals14%
Nice wins by more than 1 goals17%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%