Italian Serie B

Benevento vs Sudtirol prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Benevento vs Sudtirol (Italian Serie B), 31/08/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Benevento 48%, the draw 31% and Sudtirol 21%; the actual result had a 31% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Benevento

48%

Draw

31%

Sudtirol

21%

Actual result: Benevento 1 – 1 Sudtirol · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Benevento, negative favours Sudtirol) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Benevento - Sudtirol)+0.56

Expected total goals2.41

Expected goals Benevento / Sudtirol1.49 / 0.93

Both teams to score (yes / no)49.0% / 51.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 71.7%

Over 2.5 goals 43.4%

Over 3.5 goals 22.4%

First half

First-half result (Benevento / draw / Sudtirol)34.7% / 47.2% / 18.1%

A goal in the first half64.6%

Two or more in the first half31.3%

Half-time then full-time

Benevento lead at half-time then Benevento win29.6%

Level at half-time then draw20.2%

Level at half-time then Benevento win18.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Benevento's side

Benevento −2.017.8%

Benevento −1.7521.7%

Benevento −1.525.5%

Benevento −1.2531.1%

Benevento −1.036.8%

Benevento −0.7542.5%

Benevento −0.548.1%

Benevento −0.2555.8%

Benevento draw no bet (0.0)63.5%

Benevento +0.2571.1%

Benevento +0.578.8%

Benevento +0.7582.1%

Benevento +1.085.4%

Benevento +1.592.0%

Benevento +2.095.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Benevento win2.08

Draw3.26

Sudtirol win4.71

Over 2.52.30

Under 2.51.77

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Benevento wins by more than 1 goals25%

Sudtirol wins by more than 1 goals8%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 31/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.