UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk prediction

1 – 0
Full-time

Match summary

Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 07/08/2026, finished 1-0: Borac Banja Luka won. Before the match Jarvis gave Borac Banja Luka 53%, the draw 28% and ML Vitebsk 20%; the actual result had a 53% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-0. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Borac Banja Luka
53%
Draw
28%
ML Vitebsk
20%
Actual result: Borac Banja Luka 1 – 0 ML Vitebsk · Borac Banja Luka winJarvis gave this outcome: 53% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Borac Banja Luka, negative favours ML Vitebsk) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Borac Banja Luka - ML Vitebsk)+0.68
Expected total goals2.20
Expected goals Borac Banja Luka / ML Vitebsk1.44 / 0.76
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.0% / 59.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 64.8%
Over 2.5 goals 37.7%
Over 3.5 goals 18.0%
First half
First-half result (Borac Banja Luka / draw / ML Vitebsk)37.0% / 46.4% / 16.6%
A goal in the first half62.6%
Two or more in the first half26.3%
Half-time then full-time
Borac Banja Luka lead at half-time then Borac Banja Luka win32.0%
Level at half-time then draw19.1%
Level at half-time then Borac Banja Luka win19.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Borac Banja Luka's side
Borac Banja Luka −2.018.6%
Borac Banja Luka −1.7522.7%
Borac Banja Luka −1.526.7%
Borac Banja Luka −1.2533.3%
Borac Banja Luka −1.039.8%
Borac Banja Luka −0.7546.3%
Borac Banja Luka −0.552.8%
Borac Banja Luka −0.2559.7%
Borac Banja Luka draw no bet (0.0)66.7%
Borac Banja Luka +0.2573.6%
Borac Banja Luka +0.580.5%
Borac Banja Luka +0.7583.9%
Borac Banja Luka +1.087.3%
Borac Banja Luka +1.594.1%
Borac Banja Luka +2.096.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Borac Banja Luka win1.89
Draw3.61
ML Vitebsk win5.13
Over 2.52.65
Under 2.51.60

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Borac Banja Luka wins by more than 1 goals27%
ML Vitebsk wins by more than 1 goals6%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 07/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.