Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Brest
7%
Draw
14%
Paris St-G
79%
Actual result: Brest 0 – 1 Paris St-G · Paris St-G winJarvis gave this outcome: 79% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Brest, negative favours Paris St-G) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Brest - Paris St-G)-2.04
Expected total goals3.63
Expected goals Brest / Paris St-G0.79 / 2.84
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.9% / 48.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 88.1%
Over 2.5 goals 70.2%
Over 3.5 goals 49.1%
First half
First-half result (Brest / draw / Paris St-G)9.8% / 30.6% / 59.6%
A goal in the first half79.9%
Two or more in the first half49.1%
Half-time then full-time
Paris St-G lead at half-time then Paris St-G win56.4%
Level at half-time then Paris St-G win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw7.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Brest's side
Brest −2.01.3%
Brest −1.751.7%
Brest −1.52.1%
Brest −1.253.4%
Brest −1.04.7%
Brest −0.756.0%
Brest −0.57.3%
Brest −0.2510.7%
Brest draw no bet (0.0)14.1%
Brest +0.2517.6%
Brest +0.521.0%
Brest +0.7525.9%
Brest +1.030.7%
Brest +1.540.5%
Brest +2.051.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Brest win13.70
Draw7.30
Paris St-G win1.27
Over 2.51.42
Under 2.53.36
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Brest wins by more than 1 goals2%
Paris St-G wins by more than 1 goals59%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards1.7
2.5+ cards in the match24%