Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Coventry
24%
Draw
27%
Brighton
49%
Actual result: Coventry 0 – 5 Brighton · Brighton winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Coventry, negative favours Brighton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Coventry - Brighton)-0.56
Expected total goals2.68
Expected goals Coventry / Brighton1.06 / 1.62
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.4% / 46.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.7%
Over 2.5 goals 50.1%
Over 3.5 goals 28.1%
First half
First-half result (Coventry / draw / Brighton)20.5% / 43.0% / 36.4%
A goal in the first half69.2%
Two or more in the first half34.8%
Half-time then full-time
Brighton lead at half-time then Brighton win30.5%
Level at half-time then Brighton win17.1%
Level at half-time then draw16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Coventry's side
Coventry −2.06.0%
Coventry −1.757.6%
Coventry −1.59.3%
Coventry −1.2512.9%
Coventry −1.016.6%
Coventry −0.7520.2%
Coventry −0.523.9%
Coventry −0.2530.5%
Coventry draw no bet (0.0)37.2%
Coventry +0.2543.9%
Coventry +0.550.6%
Coventry +0.7556.3%
Coventry +1.062.0%
Coventry +1.573.4%
Coventry +2.081.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Coventry win4.19
Draw3.74
Brighton win2.02
Over 2.52.00
Under 2.52.00
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Coventry wins by more than 1 goals9%
Brighton wins by more than 1 goals27%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%