Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lecce
32%
Draw
33%
AC Monza
35%
Actual result: Lecce 3 – 2 AC Monza · Lecce winJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lecce, negative favours AC Monza) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lecce - AC Monza)-0.06
Expected total goals2.21
Expected goals Lecce / AC Monza1.07 / 1.14
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.5% / 53.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.6%
Over 2.5 goals 38.0%
Over 3.5 goals 18.3%
First half
First-half result (Lecce / draw / AC Monza)24.5% / 49.1% / 26.4%
A goal in the first half61.8%
Two or more in the first half27.4%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw21.9%
AC Monza lead at half-time then AC Monza win20.6%
Lecce lead at half-time then Lecce win18.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lecce's side
Lecce −2.08.7%
Lecce −1.7511.0%
Lecce −1.513.3%
Lecce −1.2518.0%
Lecce −1.022.7%
Lecce −0.7527.4%
Lecce −0.532.1%
Lecce −0.2540.3%
Lecce draw no bet (0.0)48.4%
Lecce +0.2556.6%
Lecce +0.564.7%
Lecce +0.7569.7%
Lecce +1.074.7%
Lecce +1.584.7%
Lecce +2.089.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lecce win3.11
Draw3.07
AC Monza win2.83
Over 2.52.63
Under 2.51.61
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lecce wins by more than 1 goals13%
AC Monza wins by more than 1 goals15%
Corners
Expected total corners8.7
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%