Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Le Mans
19%
Draw
24%
Lens
56%
Actual result: Le Mans 2 – 2 Lens · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Le Mans, negative favours Lens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Le Mans - Lens)-0.87
Expected total goals2.97
Expected goals Le Mans / Lens1.05 / 1.92
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.6% / 43.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.7%
Over 2.5 goals 57.0%
Over 3.5 goals 34.6%
First half
First-half result (Le Mans / draw / Lens)18.0% / 40.4% / 41.6%
A goal in the first half72.6%
Two or more in the first half39.7%
Half-time then full-time
Lens lead at half-time then Lens win36.1%
Level at half-time then Lens win18.4%
Level at half-time then draw14.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Le Mans's side
Le Mans −2.04.7%
Le Mans −1.756.1%
Le Mans −1.57.4%
Le Mans −1.2510.4%
Le Mans −1.013.4%
Le Mans −0.7516.3%
Le Mans −0.519.3%
Le Mans −0.2525.4%
Le Mans draw no bet (0.0)31.4%
Le Mans +0.2537.5%
Le Mans +0.543.5%
Le Mans +0.7549.2%
Le Mans +1.054.8%
Le Mans +1.566.2%
Le Mans +2.075.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Le Mans win5.18
Draw4.14
Lens win1.77
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.33
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Le Mans wins by more than 1 goals7%
Lens wins by more than 1 goals34%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%