Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
RB Leipzig
72%
Draw
17%
Hamburger SV
11%
Actual result: RB Leipzig 5 – 0 Hamburger SV · RB Leipzig winJarvis gave this outcome: 72% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours RB Leipzig, negative favours Hamburger SV) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV)+1.68
Expected total goals3.71
Expected goals RB Leipzig / Hamburger SV2.69 / 1.01
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.1% / 39.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.2%
Over 2.5 goals 71.5%
Over 3.5 goals 50.7%
First half
First-half result (RB Leipzig / draw / Hamburger SV)54.0% / 33.2% / 12.8%
A goal in the first half80.0%
Two or more in the first half50.8%
Half-time then full-time
RB Leipzig lead at half-time then RB Leipzig win49.9%
Level at half-time then RB Leipzig win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw9.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from RB Leipzig's side
RB Leipzig −2.041.8%
RB Leipzig −1.7546.9%
RB Leipzig −1.552.0%
RB Leipzig −1.2557.0%
RB Leipzig −1.062.0%
RB Leipzig −0.7567.1%
RB Leipzig −0.572.1%
RB Leipzig −0.2576.3%
RB Leipzig draw no bet (0.0)80.5%
RB Leipzig +0.2584.8%
RB Leipzig +0.589.0%
RB Leipzig +0.7590.8%
RB Leipzig +1.092.5%
RB Leipzig +1.596.1%
RB Leipzig +2.097.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
RB Leipzig win1.39
Draw5.92
Hamburger SV win9.08
Over 2.51.40
Under 2.53.51
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
RB Leipzig wins by more than 1 goals52%
Hamburger SV wins by more than 1 goals4%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%