Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Celta Vigo
55%
Draw
28%
Malaga
17%
Actual result: Celta Vigo 1 – 1 Malaga · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Celta Vigo, negative favours Malaga) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Celta Vigo - Malaga)+0.79
Expected total goals2.27
Expected goals Celta Vigo / Malaga1.53 / 0.74
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.9% / 58.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.2%
Over 2.5 goals 39.5%
Over 3.5 goals 19.4%
First half
First-half result (Celta Vigo / draw / Malaga)38.7% / 46.3% / 15.1%
A goal in the first half63.2%
Two or more in the first half27.9%
Half-time then full-time
Celta Vigo lead at half-time then Celta Vigo win34.1%
Level at half-time then Celta Vigo win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw19.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Celta Vigo's side
Celta Vigo −2.020.9%
Celta Vigo −1.7525.2%
Celta Vigo −1.529.5%
Celta Vigo −1.2535.9%
Celta Vigo −1.042.3%
Celta Vigo −0.7548.7%
Celta Vigo −0.555.1%
Celta Vigo −0.2562.1%
Celta Vigo draw no bet (0.0)69.1%
Celta Vigo +0.2576.1%
Celta Vigo +0.583.0%
Celta Vigo +0.7586.0%
Celta Vigo +1.088.9%
Celta Vigo +1.594.8%
Celta Vigo +2.096.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Celta Vigo win1.81
Draw3.58
Malaga win5.90
Over 2.52.53
Under 2.51.65
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Celta Vigo wins by more than 1 goals30%
Malaga wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%