Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Brighton
19%
Draw
25%
Arsenal
56%
Actual result: Brighton 3 – 0 Arsenal · Brighton winJarvis gave this outcome: 19%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Brighton, negative favours Arsenal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Brighton - Arsenal)-0.83
Expected total goals2.69
Expected goals Brighton / Arsenal0.93 / 1.76
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.1% / 48.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.9%
Over 2.5 goals 50.4%
Over 3.5 goals 28.4%
First half
First-half result (Brighton / draw / Arsenal)17.1% / 42.3% / 40.6%
A goal in the first half69.3%
Two or more in the first half35.0%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win35.3%
Level at half-time then Arsenal win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Brighton's side
Brighton −2.04.2%
Brighton −1.755.4%
Brighton −1.56.6%
Brighton −1.259.6%
Brighton −1.012.7%
Brighton −0.7515.7%
Brighton −0.518.7%
Brighton −0.2525.1%
Brighton draw no bet (0.0)31.4%
Brighton +0.2537.7%
Brighton +0.544.1%
Brighton +0.7550.0%
Brighton +1.056.0%
Brighton +1.567.9%
Brighton +2.076.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Brighton win5.34
Draw3.95
Arsenal win1.79
Over 2.51.98
Under 2.52.02
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Brighton wins by more than 1 goals7%
Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals32%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.7
2.5+ cards in the match51%