Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Elversberg
6%
Draw
10%
Bayern Munich
85%
Actual result: Elversberg 1 – 2 Bayern Munich · Bayern Munich winJarvis gave this outcome: 85% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Elversberg, negative favours Bayern Munich) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Elversberg - Bayern Munich)-2.71
Expected total goals4.73
Expected goals Elversberg / Bayern Munich1.01 / 3.72
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.2% / 37.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 95.2%
Over 2.5 goals 85.0%
Over 3.5 goals 69.5%
First half
First-half result (Elversberg / draw / Bayern Munich)8.7% / 24.4% / 66.8%
A goal in the first half87.3%
Two or more in the first half63.5%
Half-time then full-time
Bayern Munich lead at half-time then Bayern Munich win64.1%
Level at half-time then Bayern Munich win17.5%
Level at half-time then draw4.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Elversberg's side
Elversberg −2.01.1%
Elversberg −1.751.5%
Elversberg −1.51.8%
Elversberg −1.252.7%
Elversberg −1.03.7%
Elversberg −0.754.6%
Elversberg −0.55.5%
Elversberg −0.257.9%
Elversberg draw no bet (0.0)10.3%
Elversberg +0.2512.7%
Elversberg +0.515.0%
Elversberg +0.7518.7%
Elversberg +1.022.3%
Elversberg +1.529.5%
Elversberg +2.038.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Elversberg win18.17
Draw10.48
Bayern Munich win1.18
Over 2.51.18
Under 2.56.69
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Elversberg wins by more than 1 goals2%
Bayern Munich wins by more than 1 goals70%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%