English Football League Cup

Chelsea vs Luton prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Chelsea vs Luton (English Football League Cup), 28/08/2026, finished 2-0: Chelsea won. Before the match Jarvis gave Chelsea 85%, the draw 10% and Luton 5%; the actual result had a 85% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.9.

Next for Chelsea: Everton (Sat 17/10, 18:30 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Chelsea

85%

Draw

10%

Luton

Actual result: Chelsea 2 – 0 Luton · Chelsea winJarvis gave this outcome: 85% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Chelsea, negative favours Luton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Chelsea - Luton)+2.51

Expected total goals3.88

Expected goals Chelsea / Luton3.20 / 0.69

Both teams to score (yes / no)47.7% / 52.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 90.1%

Over 2.5 goals 74.4%

Over 3.5 goals 54.3%

First half

First-half result (Chelsea / draw / Luton)66.0% / 26.5% / 7.5%

A goal in the first half82.4%

Two or more in the first half52.3%

Half-time then full-time

Chelsea lead at half-time then Chelsea win63.5%

Level at half-time then Chelsea win18.9%

Level at half-time then draw5.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Chelsea's side

Chelsea −2.058.1%

Chelsea −1.7563.3%

Chelsea −1.568.4%

Chelsea −1.2572.7%

Chelsea −1.076.9%

Chelsea −0.7581.1%

Chelsea −0.585.3%

Chelsea −0.2587.8%

Chelsea draw no bet (0.0)90.3%

Chelsea +0.2592.8%

Chelsea +0.595.3%

Chelsea +0.7596.2%

Chelsea +1.097.1%

Chelsea +1.598.8%

Chelsea +2.099.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Chelsea win1.17

Draw10.01

Luton win21.29

Over 2.51.34

Under 2.53.91

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Chelsea wins by more than 1 goals68%

Luton wins by more than 1 goals1%

Corners

Expected total corners10.5

6.5+ corners in the match48%

Cards

Expected total cards1.2

2.5+ cards in the match12%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Chelsea

vs Everton (away)Sat 17/10, 18:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 42% / 27% / 30%
vs Tottenham HotspurSat 24/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27

Other matches on 28/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.