FIFA World Cup
Egypt vs Iran prediction
Egypt
1 – 1
Full-time
Iran
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Egypt
39%
Draw
36%
Iran
25%
Actual result: Egypt 1 – 1 Iran · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 36%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Egypt, negative favours Iran) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Egypt - Iran)+0.28
Expected total goals1.94
Expected goals Egypt / Iran1.11 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.4% / 59.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 60.3%
Over 2.5 goals 30.6%
Over 3.5 goals 13.2%
First half
First-half result (Egypt / draw / Iran)27.8% / 53.1% / 19.1%
A goal in the first half56.6%
Two or more in the first half23.3%
Half-time then full-time
level then draw25.8%
Egypt ahead then Egypt win23.1%
level then Egypt win16.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Egypt
Egypt give 2 trái (−2.0)11.4%
Egypt give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)14.3%
Egypt give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)17.3%
Egypt give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)22.7%
Egypt give 1 trái (−1.0)28.2%
Egypt give 3/4 trái (−0.75)33.7%
Egypt give nửa trái (−0.5)39.1%
Egypt give 1/4 trái (−0.25)48.2%
Level ball (0.0)57.3%
Egypt receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)66.4%
Egypt receive nửa trái (+0.5)75.5%
Egypt receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)79.4%
Egypt receive 1 trái (+1.0)83.3%
Egypt receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)91.2%
Egypt receive 2 trái (+2.0)94.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Egypt win2.56
Draw2.75
Iran win4.07
Over 2.53.27
Under 2.51.44
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–0
17.1%
1–1
15.9%
1–0
13.3%
0–1
9.3%
2–0
8.8%
2–1
7.3%
Goal margin
Egypt wins by more than 1 goals17%
Iran wins by more than 1 goals9%