Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Panama
6%
Draw
11%
England
83%
Actual result: Panama 0 – 2 England · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 83% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Panama, negative favours England) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Panama - England)-2.04
Expected total goals2.90
Expected goals Panama / England0.43 / 2.47
Both teams to score (yes / no)30.8% / 69.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.3%
Over 2.5 goals 55.3%
Over 3.5 goals 33.0%
First half
First-half result (Panama / draw / England)7.6% / 31.0% / 61.4%
A goal in the first half74.0%
Two or more in the first half36.3%
Half-time then full-time
England lead at half-time then England win58.7%
Level at half-time then England win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw7.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Panama's side
Panama −2.00.5%
Panama −1.750.6%
Panama −1.50.8%
Panama −1.252.1%
Panama −1.03.3%
Panama −0.754.6%
Panama −0.55.9%
Panama −0.258.6%
Panama draw no bet (0.0)11.3%
Panama +0.2514.0%
Panama +0.516.7%
Panama +0.7522.5%
Panama +1.028.4%
Panama +1.540.1%
Panama +2.051.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Panama win17.04
Draw9.27
England win1.20
Over 2.51.81
Under 2.52.24
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–2
16.8%
0–1
14.8%
0–3
13.8%
0–4
8.5%
1–2
7.2%
1–3
5.9%
Goal margin
Panama wins by more than 1 goals1%
England wins by more than 1 goals60%