FIFA World Cup
Uruguay vs Spain prediction
Uruguay
0 – 1
Full-time
Spain
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Uruguay
13%
Draw
23%
Spain
65%
Actual result: Uruguay 0 – 1 Spain · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 65% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Uruguay, negative favours Spain) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Uruguay - Spain)-1.16
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Uruguay / Spain0.67 / 1.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.4% / 58.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.6%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Uruguay / draw / Spain)12.6% / 41.6% / 45.8%
A goal in the first half67.3%
Two or more in the first half31.3%
Half-time then full-time
Spain ahead then Spain win41.7%
level then Spain win21.1%
level then draw15.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Uruguay
Uruguay give 2 trái (−2.0)2.0%
Uruguay give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)2.7%
Uruguay give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)3.4%
Uruguay give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)5.7%
Uruguay give 1 trái (−1.0)8.0%
Uruguay give 3/4 trái (−0.75)10.4%
Uruguay give nửa trái (−0.5)12.7%
Uruguay give 1/4 trái (−0.25)18.3%
Level ball (0.0)23.9%
Uruguay receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)29.6%
Uruguay receive nửa trái (+0.5)35.2%
Uruguay receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)41.7%
Uruguay receive 1 trái (+1.0)48.2%
Uruguay receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)61.2%
Uruguay receive 2 trái (+2.0)71.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Uruguay win7.88
Draw4.44
Spain win1.54
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
14.7%
0–2
13.7%
1–1
10.4%
1–2
9.2%
0–0
8.6%
0–3
8.4%
Goal margin
Uruguay wins by more than 1 goals3%
Spain wins by more than 1 goals39%