Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
New Zealand
6%
Draw
13%
Belgium
81%
Actual result: New Zealand 1 – 5 Belgium · Belgium winJarvis gave this outcome: 81% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours New Zealand, negative favours Belgium) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (New Zealand - Belgium)-1.85
Expected total goals2.55
Expected goals New Zealand / Belgium0.35 / 2.20
Both teams to score (yes / no)25.2% / 74.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.1%
Over 2.5 goals 47.0%
Over 3.5 goals 25.4%
First half
First-half result (New Zealand / draw / Belgium)6.9% / 34.9% / 58.3%
A goal in the first half69.3%
Two or more in the first half30.9%
Half-time then full-time
Belgium lead at half-time then Belgium win55.7%
Level at half-time then Belgium win22.5%
Level at half-time then draw9.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from New Zealand's side
New Zealand −2.00.4%
New Zealand −1.750.5%
New Zealand −1.50.7%
New Zealand −1.252.0%
New Zealand −1.03.3%
New Zealand −0.754.6%
New Zealand −0.55.9%
New Zealand −0.259.0%
New Zealand draw no bet (0.0)12.2%
New Zealand +0.2515.4%
New Zealand +0.518.5%
New Zealand +0.7525.0%
New Zealand +1.031.5%
New Zealand +1.544.4%
New Zealand +2.056.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
New Zealand win17.09
Draw7.89
Belgium win1.23
Over 2.52.13
Under 2.51.89
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–2
18.9%
0–1
18.3%
0–3
13.8%
0–4
7.6%
1–2
6.6%
0–0
6.6%
Goal margin
New Zealand wins by more than 1 goals1%
Belgium wins by more than 1 goals56%