UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag FK prediction

0 – 0
Full-time

Match summary

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag FK (Europa League), 31/07/2026, finished 0-0: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave CSKA Sofia 33%, the draw 31% and Qarabag FK 36%; the actual result had a 31% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 0 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
CSKA Sofia
33%
Draw
31%
Qarabag FK
36%
Actual result: CSKA Sofia 0 – 0 Qarabag FK · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours CSKA Sofia, negative favours Qarabag FK) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (CSKA Sofia - Qarabag FK)-0.06
Expected total goals2.37
Expected goals CSKA Sofia / Qarabag FK1.15 / 1.21
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.5% / 50.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.8%
Over 2.5 goals 42.2%
Over 3.5 goals 21.4%
First half
First-half result (CSKA Sofia / draw / Qarabag FK)25.6% / 47.0% / 27.4%
A goal in the first half64.5%
Two or more in the first half29.9%
Half-time then full-time
Qarabag FK lead at half-time then Qarabag FK win21.2%
Level at half-time then draw19.9%
CSKA Sofia lead at half-time then CSKA Sofia win19.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from CSKA Sofia's side
CSKA Sofia −2.09.4%
CSKA Sofia −1.7511.8%
CSKA Sofia −1.514.2%
CSKA Sofia −1.2519.0%
CSKA Sofia −1.023.7%
CSKA Sofia −0.7528.5%
CSKA Sofia −0.533.2%
CSKA Sofia −0.2540.9%
CSKA Sofia draw no bet (0.0)48.5%
CSKA Sofia +0.2556.2%
CSKA Sofia +0.563.8%
CSKA Sofia +0.7568.9%
CSKA Sofia +1.073.9%
CSKA Sofia +1.583.9%
CSKA Sofia +2.089.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
CSKA Sofia win3.01
Draw3.26
Qarabag FK win2.77
Over 2.52.37
Under 2.51.73

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
CSKA Sofia wins by more than 1 goals14%
Qarabag FK wins by more than 1 goals16%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 31/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.