Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
DR Congo
55%
Draw
24%
Uzbekistan
21%
Actual result: DR Congo 3 – 1 Uzbekistan · DR Congo winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours DR Congo, negative favours Uzbekistan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (DR Congo - Uzbekistan)+0.73
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals DR Congo / Uzbekistan1.61 / 0.89
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.5% / 53.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.7%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (DR Congo / draw / Uzbekistan)39.8% / 41.6% / 18.6%
A goal in the first half68.0%
Two or more in the first half30.5%
Half-time then full-time
DR Congo lead at half-time then DR Congo win33.9%
Level at half-time then DR Congo win18.2%
Level at half-time then draw15.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from DR Congo's side
DR Congo −2.020.9%
DR Congo −1.7525.1%
DR Congo −1.529.3%
DR Congo −1.2535.7%
DR Congo −1.042.2%
DR Congo −0.7548.7%
DR Congo −0.555.1%
DR Congo −0.2561.0%
DR Congo draw no bet (0.0)67.0%
DR Congo +0.2572.9%
DR Congo +0.578.8%
DR Congo +0.7582.4%
DR Congo +1.086.0%
DR Congo +1.593.3%
DR Congo +2.095.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
DR Congo win1.81
Draw4.23
Uzbekistan win4.71
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
13.9%
1–1
11.1%
2–0
10.7%
2–1
9.5%
0–1
7.9%
0–0
7.6%
Goal margin
DR Congo wins by more than 1 goals29%
Uzbekistan wins by more than 1 goals7%