Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Fulham
27%
Draw
26%
Man Utd
47%
Actual result: Fulham 1 – 1 Man Utd · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fulham, negative favours Man Utd) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Fulham - Man Utd)-0.46
Expected total goals3.15
Expected goals Fulham / Man Utd1.34 / 1.81
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.3% / 36.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.7%
Over 2.5 goals 61.0%
Over 3.5 goals 38.7%
First half
First-half result (Fulham / draw / Man Utd)23.3% / 41.0% / 35.7%
A goal in the first half74.1%
Two or more in the first half43.1%
Half-time then full-time
Man Utd lead at half-time then Man Utd win29.2%
Fulham lead at half-time then Fulham win15.9%
Level at half-time then Man Utd win15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Fulham's side
Fulham −2.08.4%
Fulham −1.7510.4%
Fulham −1.512.4%
Fulham −1.2516.1%
Fulham −1.019.8%
Fulham −0.7523.5%
Fulham −0.527.2%
Fulham −0.2533.6%
Fulham draw no bet (0.0)40.1%
Fulham +0.2546.6%
Fulham +0.553.0%
Fulham +0.7558.1%
Fulham +1.063.2%
Fulham +1.573.4%
Fulham +2.080.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Fulham win3.68
Draw3.86
Man Utd win2.13
Over 2.51.64
Under 2.52.57
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Fulham wins by more than 1 goals12%
Man Utd wins by more than 1 goals27%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match43%