Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Le Havre
35%
Draw
31%
Angers
34%
Actual result: Le Havre 0 – 0 Angers · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Le Havre, negative favours Angers) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Le Havre - Angers)+0.03
Expected total goals2.46
Expected goals Le Havre / Angers1.25 / 1.22
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.2% / 47.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 goals 44.7%
Over 3.5 goals 23.5%
First half
First-half result (Le Havre / draw / Angers)26.9% / 47.1% / 26.0%
A goal in the first half65.4%
Two or more in the first half32.0%
Half-time then full-time
Le Havre lead at half-time then Le Havre win20.8%
Level at half-time then draw20.1%
Angers lead at half-time then Angers win19.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Le Havre's side
Le Havre −2.010.8%
Le Havre −1.7513.5%
Le Havre −1.516.2%
Le Havre −1.2520.9%
Le Havre −1.025.6%
Le Havre −0.7530.4%
Le Havre −0.535.1%
Le Havre −0.2542.9%
Le Havre draw no bet (0.0)50.8%
Le Havre +0.2558.6%
Le Havre +0.566.4%
Le Havre +0.7571.0%
Le Havre +1.075.6%
Le Havre +1.584.8%
Le Havre +2.089.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Le Havre win2.85
Draw3.20
Angers win2.98
Over 2.52.24
Under 2.51.81
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Le Havre wins by more than 1 goals16%
Angers wins by more than 1 goals15%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%