Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Le Mans
33%
Draw
30%
Lorient
37%
Actual result: Le Mans 2 – 1 Lorient · Le Mans winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Le Mans, negative favours Lorient) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Le Mans - Lorient)-0.07
Expected total goals2.62
Expected goals Le Mans / Lorient1.27 / 1.34
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.2% / 44.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 goals 48.5%
Over 3.5 goals 26.7%
First half
First-half result (Le Mans / draw / Lorient)26.1% / 45.8% / 28.1%
A goal in the first half67.5%
Two or more in the first half34.6%
Half-time then full-time
Lorient lead at half-time then Lorient win21.8%
Le Mans lead at half-time then Le Mans win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw19.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Le Mans's side
Le Mans −2.010.3%
Le Mans −1.7512.8%
Le Mans −1.515.3%
Le Mans −1.2519.8%
Le Mans −1.024.3%
Le Mans −0.7528.7%
Le Mans −0.533.2%
Le Mans −0.2540.8%
Le Mans draw no bet (0.0)48.3%
Le Mans +0.2555.9%
Le Mans +0.563.4%
Le Mans +0.7568.2%
Le Mans +1.072.9%
Le Mans +1.582.5%
Le Mans +2.088.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Le Mans win3.01
Draw3.31
Lorient win2.73
Over 2.52.06
Under 2.51.94
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Le Mans wins by more than 1 goals15%
Lorient wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards2.3
2.5+ cards in the match41%