Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Leverkusen
52%
Draw
23%
RB Leipzig
25%
Actual result: Leverkusen 2 – 0 RB Leipzig · Leverkusen winJarvis gave this outcome: 52% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Leverkusen, negative favours RB Leipzig) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Leverkusen - RB Leipzig)+0.67
Expected total goals3.74
Expected goals Leverkusen / RB Leipzig2.21 / 1.53
Both teams to score (yes / no)71.0% / 29.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.9%
Over 2.5 goals 72.1%
Over 3.5 goals 51.4%
First half
First-half result (Leverkusen / draw / RB Leipzig)39.7% / 37.4% / 22.8%
A goal in the first half79.5%
Two or more in the first half52.0%
Half-time then full-time
Leverkusen lead at half-time then Leverkusen win33.1%
Level at half-time then Leverkusen win16.0%
RB Leipzig lead at half-time then RB Leipzig win14.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Leverkusen's side
Leverkusen −2.024.3%
Leverkusen −1.7528.2%
Leverkusen −1.532.2%
Leverkusen −1.2537.1%
Leverkusen −1.042.0%
Leverkusen −0.7546.9%
Leverkusen −0.551.8%
Leverkusen −0.2557.5%
Leverkusen draw no bet (0.0)63.1%
Leverkusen +0.2568.8%
Leverkusen +0.574.5%
Leverkusen +0.7577.9%
Leverkusen +1.081.2%
Leverkusen +1.587.8%
Leverkusen +2.091.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Leverkusen win1.93
Draw4.39
RB Leipzig win3.93
Over 2.51.39
Under 2.53.59
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Leverkusen wins by more than 1 goals32%
RB Leipzig wins by more than 1 goals12%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match41%