Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lorient
39%
Draw
31%
Toulouse
31%
Actual result: Lorient 2 – 2 Toulouse · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lorient, negative favours Toulouse) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lorient - Toulouse)+0.17
Expected total goals2.62
Expected goals Lorient / Toulouse1.39 / 1.23
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.5% / 44.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.0%
Over 2.5 goals 48.7%
Over 3.5 goals 26.9%
First half
First-half result (Lorient / draw / Toulouse)29.3% / 46.3% / 24.5%
A goal in the first half67.3%
Two or more in the first half35.0%
Half-time then full-time
Lorient lead at half-time then Lorient win23.2%
Level at half-time then draw19.5%
Toulouse lead at half-time then Toulouse win18.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lorient's side
Lorient −2.013.1%
Lorient −1.7516.1%
Lorient −1.519.2%
Lorient −1.2524.0%
Lorient −1.028.8%
Lorient −0.7533.7%
Lorient −0.538.5%
Lorient −0.2546.2%
Lorient draw no bet (0.0)53.9%
Lorient +0.2561.6%
Lorient +0.569.2%
Lorient +0.7573.4%
Lorient +1.077.6%
Lorient +1.586.0%
Lorient +2.090.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lorient win2.60
Draw3.26
Toulouse win3.25
Over 2.52.05
Under 2.51.95
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lorient wins by more than 1 goals19%
Toulouse wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards2.0
2.5+ cards in the match32%