Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lyon
43%
Draw
27%
Rennes
30%
Actual result: Lyon 4 – 0 Rennes · Lyon winJarvis gave this outcome: 43% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lyon, negative favours Rennes) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lyon - Rennes)+0.30
Expected total goals3.11
Expected goals Lyon / Rennes1.71 / 1.41
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.3% / 36.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.2%
Over 2.5 goals 60.2%
Over 3.5 goals 37.8%
First half
First-half result (Lyon / draw / Rennes)33.2% / 41.6% / 25.2%
A goal in the first half73.6%
Two or more in the first half42.6%
Half-time then full-time
Lyon lead at half-time then Lyon win26.5%
Rennes lead at half-time then Rennes win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw15.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lyon's side
Lyon −2.016.8%
Lyon −1.7520.2%
Lyon −1.523.5%
Lyon −1.2528.4%
Lyon −1.033.3%
Lyon −0.7538.2%
Lyon −0.543.2%
Lyon −0.2549.8%
Lyon draw no bet (0.0)56.4%
Lyon +0.2563.1%
Lyon +0.569.7%
Lyon +0.7573.7%
Lyon +1.077.7%
Lyon +1.585.7%
Lyon +2.090.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lyon win2.32
Draw3.76
Rennes win3.31
Over 2.51.66
Under 2.52.51
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lyon wins by more than 1 goals24%
Rennes wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners10.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%