Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Man Utd
30%
Draw
26%
Man City
44%
Actual result: Man Utd 0 – 1 Man City · Man City winJarvis gave this outcome: 44% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Man Utd, negative favours Man City) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Man Utd - Man City)-0.31
Expected total goals3.04
Expected goals Man Utd / Man City1.37 / 1.68
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.7% / 38.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.8%
Over 2.5 goals 58.6%
Over 3.5 goals 36.2%
First half
First-half result (Man Utd / draw / Man City)25.2% / 41.1% / 33.7%
A goal in the first half73.4%
Two or more in the first half40.9%
Half-time then full-time
Man City lead at half-time then Man City win26.8%
Man Utd lead at half-time then Man Utd win17.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Man Utd's side
Man Utd −2.09.4%
Man Utd −1.7511.6%
Man Utd −1.513.9%
Man Utd −1.2518.0%
Man Utd −1.022.1%
Man Utd −0.7526.1%
Man Utd −0.530.2%
Man Utd −0.2536.7%
Man Utd draw no bet (0.0)43.2%
Man Utd +0.2549.7%
Man Utd +0.556.2%
Man Utd +0.7561.3%
Man Utd +1.066.4%
Man Utd +1.576.5%
Man Utd +2.083.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Man Utd win3.31
Draw3.84
Man City win2.29
Over 2.51.71
Under 2.52.42
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Man Utd wins by more than 1 goals14%
Man City wins by more than 1 goals23%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%