Italian Serie B

Mantova vs Empoli prediction

Mantova

3 – 1

Full-time

Empoli

Match summary

Mantova vs Empoli (Italian Serie B), 31/08/2026, finished 3-1: Mantova won.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Mantova

48%

Draw

29%

Empoli

22%

Actual result: Mantova 3 – 1 Empoli · Mantova winJarvis gave this outcome: 48% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mantova, negative favours Empoli) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Mantova - Empoli)+0.57

Expected total goals2.56

Expected goals Mantova / Empoli1.56 / 1.00

Both teams to score (yes / no)51.9% / 48.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 74.5%

Over 2.5 goals 47.2%

Over 3.5 goals 25.6%

First half

First-half result (Mantova / draw / Empoli)35.3% / 45.7% / 19.0%

A goal in the first half66.7%

Two or more in the first half33.7%

Half-time then full-time

Mantova lead at half-time then Mantova win30.0%

Level at half-time then draw18.9%

Level at half-time then Mantova win17.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Mantova's side

Mantova −2.018.5%

Mantova −1.7522.4%

Mantova −1.526.2%

Mantova −1.2531.8%

Mantova −1.037.3%

Mantova −0.7542.9%

Mantova −0.548.4%

Mantova −0.2555.8%

Mantova draw no bet (0.0)63.2%

Mantova +0.2570.5%

Mantova +0.577.9%

Mantova +0.7581.2%

Mantova +1.084.6%

Mantova +1.591.3%

Mantova +2.094.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Mantova win2.06

Draw3.40

Empoli win4.52

Over 2.52.12

Under 2.51.89

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Mantova wins by more than 1 goals26%

Empoli wins by more than 1 goals9%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 31/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.