Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Marseille
13%
Draw
19%
Paris St-G
68%
Actual result: Marseille 1 – 2 Paris St-G · Paris St-G winJarvis gave this outcome: 68% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Marseille, negative favours Paris St-G) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Marseille - Paris St-G)-1.43
Expected total goals3.48
Expected goals Marseille / Paris St-G1.02 / 2.46
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.2% / 40.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.8%
Over 2.5 goals 67.6%
Over 3.5 goals 45.9%
First half
First-half result (Marseille / draw / Paris St-G)14.5% / 34.7% / 50.9%
A goal in the first half78.3%
Two or more in the first half47.3%
Half-time then full-time
Paris St-G lead at half-time then Paris St-G win46.1%
Level at half-time then Paris St-G win19.2%
Level at half-time then draw10.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Marseille's side
Marseille −2.03.0%
Marseille −1.753.9%
Marseille −1.54.7%
Marseille −1.256.9%
Marseille −1.09.0%
Marseille −0.7511.1%
Marseille −0.513.3%
Marseille −0.2517.9%
Marseille draw no bet (0.0)22.5%
Marseille +0.2527.2%
Marseille +0.531.8%
Marseille +0.7537.2%
Marseille +1.042.5%
Marseille +1.553.2%
Marseille +2.063.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Marseille win7.53
Draw5.39
Paris St-G win1.47
Over 2.51.48
Under 2.53.08
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Marseille wins by more than 1 goals5%
Paris St-G wins by more than 1 goals47%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match42%