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NEC Nijmegen vs PFC Levski Sofia prediction

NEC Nijmegen
02:00, 16/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
PFC Levski Sofia

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
NEC Nijmegen
50%
Draw
27%
PFC Levski Sofia
23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours NEC Nijmegen, negative favours PFC Levski Sofia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (NEC Nijmegen - PFC Levski Sofia)+0.59
Expected total goals2.67
Expected goals NEC Nijmegen / PFC Levski Sofia1.63 / 1.04
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.0% / 47.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.7%
Over 2.5 goals 49.9%
Over 3.5 goals 27.9%
First half
First-half result (NEC Nijmegen / draw / PFC Levski Sofia)36.9% / 43.2% / 19.9%
A goal in the first half69.0%
Two or more in the first half34.7%
Half-time then full-time
NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time then NEC Nijmegen win31.0%
Level at half-time then NEC Nijmegen win17.4%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from NEC Nijmegen's side
NEC Nijmegen −2.019.4%
NEC Nijmegen −1.7523.3%
NEC Nijmegen −1.527.2%
NEC Nijmegen −1.2533.0%
NEC Nijmegen −1.038.7%
NEC Nijmegen −0.7544.4%
NEC Nijmegen −0.550.2%
NEC Nijmegen −0.2556.9%
NEC Nijmegen draw no bet (0.0)63.6%
NEC Nijmegen +0.2570.3%
NEC Nijmegen +0.577.0%
NEC Nijmegen +0.7580.5%
NEC Nijmegen +1.084.1%
NEC Nijmegen +1.591.2%
NEC Nijmegen +2.094.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
NEC Nijmegen win1.99
Draw3.73
PFC Levski Sofia win4.34
Over 2.52.00
Under 2.52.00

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
NEC Nijmegen wins by more than 1 goals27%
PFC Levski Sofia wins by more than 1 goals9%

Probability trajectory

NEC Nijmegen vs PFC Levski Sofia injury report and team news

NEC Nijmegen
  • E. MorOut · Groin Injury
  • B. NuytinckOut · Ankle Injury
  • P. SandlerOut · Injury
PFC Levski Sofia
  • A. BourasOut · Muscle Injury
  • R. KirilovOut · Knee Injury
  • N. SerafimovOut · Elbow Injury

NEC Nijmegen vs PFC Levski Sofia team form

NEC NijmegenDDLLD
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Ajax (away)1–1
20/09/2026GO Ahead Eagles (home)1–1
17/09/2026Juventus (away)0–5
12/09/2026Cambuur (away)0–3
08/09/2026Excelsior (home)2–2
PFC Levski SofiaWLDL
Last 5 matches
11/10/2026Cherno More Varna (away)2–0
17/09/2026Red Bull Salzburg (home)0–1
13/09/2026Botev Vratsa (away)0–0
09/09/2026CSKA Sofia (home)2–4

Match information

Referee
Aliyar Agayev
Venue
Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen
Round
2