English Football League Cup

Newcastle vs West Brom prediction

3 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Newcastle vs West Brom (English Football League Cup), 27/08/2026, finished 3-2: Newcastle won. Before the match Jarvis gave Newcastle 70%, the draw 17% and West Brom 12%; the actual result had a 70% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 3.3.

Next for Newcastle: Aston Villa (Sat 17/10, 23:30 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Newcastle

70%

Draw

17%

West Brom

12%

Actual result: Newcastle 3 – 2 West Brom · Newcastle winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Newcastle, negative favours West Brom) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Newcastle - West Brom)+1.50

Expected total goals3.32

Expected goals Newcastle / West Brom2.41 / 0.91

Both teams to score (yes / no)54.5% / 45.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 84.5%

Over 2.5 goals 64.4%

Over 3.5 goals 42.4%

First half

First-half result (Newcastle / draw / West Brom)52.3% / 34.0% / 13.7%

A goal in the first half77.3%

Two or more in the first half44.2%

Half-time then full-time

Newcastle lead at half-time then Newcastle win47.7%

Level at half-time then Newcastle win19.4%

Level at half-time then draw9.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Newcastle's side

Newcastle −2.037.7%

Newcastle −1.7542.9%

Newcastle −1.548.0%

Newcastle −1.2553.6%

Newcastle −1.059.2%

Newcastle −0.7564.7%

Newcastle −0.570.3%

Newcastle −0.2574.7%

Newcastle draw no bet (0.0)79.1%

Newcastle +0.2583.4%

Newcastle +0.587.8%

Newcastle +0.7589.9%

Newcastle +1.092.0%

Newcastle +1.596.1%

Newcastle +2.097.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Newcastle win1.42

Draw5.72

West Brom win8.20

Over 2.51.55

Under 2.52.81

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Newcastle wins by more than 1 goals48%

West Brom wins by more than 1 goals4%

Corners

Expected total corners9.9

6.5+ corners in the match53%

Cards

Expected total cards1.9

2.5+ cards in the match28%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Newcastle

vs Aston VillaSat 17/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 41% / 27% / 31%
vs Crystal Palace (away)Sun 25/10, 21:00 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27

Other matches on 27/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.