German Bundesliga 2

Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld prediction

4 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld (Bundesliga), 30/08/2026, finished 4-1: Nurnberg won. Before the match Jarvis gave Nurnberg 42%, the draw 28% and Arminia Bielefeld 30%; the actual result had a 42% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Nurnberg

42%

Draw

28%

Arminia Bielefeld

30%

Actual result: Nurnberg 4 – 1 Arminia Bielefeld · Nurnberg winJarvis gave this outcome: 42% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Nurnberg, negative favours Arminia Bielefeld) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Nurnberg - Arminia Bielefeld)+0.27

Expected total goals2.84

Expected goals Nurnberg / Arminia Bielefeld1.55 / 1.29

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.8% / 41.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 79.3%

Over 2.5 goals 54.0%

Over 3.5 goals 31.7%

First half

First-half result (Nurnberg / draw / Arminia Bielefeld)31.9% / 43.7% / 24.4%

A goal in the first half70.4%

Two or more in the first half38.2%

Half-time then full-time

Nurnberg lead at half-time then Nurnberg win25.5%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time then Arminia Bielefeld win17.5%

Level at half-time then draw17.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Nurnberg's side

Nurnberg −2.015.3%

Nurnberg −1.7518.6%

Nurnberg −1.521.8%

Nurnberg −1.2526.8%

Nurnberg −1.031.8%

Nurnberg −0.7536.8%

Nurnberg −0.541.8%

Nurnberg −0.2548.9%

Nurnberg draw no bet (0.0)56.0%

Nurnberg +0.2563.1%

Nurnberg +0.570.2%

Nurnberg +0.7574.2%

Nurnberg +1.078.3%

Nurnberg +1.586.4%

Nurnberg +2.090.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Nurnberg win2.39

Draw3.53

Arminia Bielefeld win3.35

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.17

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Nurnberg wins by more than 1 goals22%

Arminia Bielefeld wins by more than 1 goals14%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 30/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.