English Premier League

Chelsea vs Brighton prediction

4 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

Chelsea vs Brighton (Premier League), 30/08/2026, finished 4-3: Chelsea won. Before the match Jarvis gave Chelsea 50%, the draw 26% and Brighton 24%; the actual result had a 50% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 7 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9. Last 10 meetings: Chelsea won 4, 1 drawn, Brighton won 5.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Chelsea

50%

Draw

26%

Brighton

24%

Actual result: Chelsea 4 – 3 Brighton · Chelsea winJarvis gave this outcome: 50% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Chelsea, negative favours Brighton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Chelsea - Brighton)+0.58

Expected total goals2.95

Expected goals Chelsea / Brighton1.77 / 1.18

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.8% / 41.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.6%

Over 2.5 goals 56.5%

Over 3.5 goals 34.1%

First half

First-half result (Chelsea / draw / Brighton)37.2% / 41.6% / 21.2%

A goal in the first half72.1%

Two or more in the first half39.6%

Half-time then full-time

Chelsea lead at half-time then Chelsea win31.1%

Level at half-time then Chelsea win16.8%

Level at half-time then draw15.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Chelsea's side

Chelsea −2.020.3%

Chelsea −1.7524.2%

Chelsea −1.528.1%

Chelsea −1.2533.5%

Chelsea −1.038.9%

Chelsea −0.7544.3%

Chelsea −0.549.8%

Chelsea −0.2556.3%

Chelsea draw no bet (0.0)62.7%

Chelsea +0.2569.2%

Chelsea +0.575.7%

Chelsea +0.7579.3%

Chelsea +1.082.8%

Chelsea +1.589.8%

Chelsea +2.093.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Chelsea win2.01

Draw3.85

Brighton win4.12

Over 2.51.77

Under 2.52.30

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Chelsea wins by more than 1 goals28%

Brighton wins by more than 1 goals10%

Corners

Expected total corners10.1

6.5+ corners in the match55%

Cards

Expected total cards4.1

2.5+ cards in the match58%