Spanish La Liga

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid prediction

1 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga), 30/08/2026, finished 1-3: Atletico Madrid won. Before the match Jarvis gave Sevilla 22%, the draw 29% and Atletico Madrid 49%; the actual result had a 49% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Sevilla

22%

Draw

29%

Atletico Madrid

49%

Actual result: Sevilla 1 – 3 Atletico Madrid · Atletico Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sevilla, negative favours Atletico Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Sevilla - Atletico Madrid)-0.58

Expected total goals2.43

Expected goals Sevilla / Atletico Madrid0.92 / 1.50

Both teams to score (yes / no)48.5% / 51.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 71.3%

Over 2.5 goals 43.8%

Over 3.5 goals 22.7%

First half

First-half result (Sevilla / draw / Atletico Madrid)18.5% / 46.0% / 35.5%

A goal in the first half65.3%

Two or more in the first half31.0%

Half-time then full-time

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win30.2%

Level at half-time then draw19.1%

Level at half-time then Atletico Madrid win18.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Sevilla's side

Sevilla −2.05.0%

Sevilla −1.756.4%

Sevilla −1.57.9%

Sevilla −1.2511.3%

Sevilla −1.014.8%

Sevilla −0.7518.2%

Sevilla −0.521.6%

Sevilla −0.2528.9%

Sevilla draw no bet (0.0)36.2%

Sevilla +0.2543.5%

Sevilla +0.550.8%

Sevilla +0.7556.6%

Sevilla +1.062.4%

Sevilla +1.574.1%

Sevilla +2.081.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Sevilla win4.63

Draw3.43

Atletico Madrid win2.03

Over 2.52.28

Under 2.51.78

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Sevilla wins by more than 1 goals8%

Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals26%

Corners

Expected total corners9.6

6.5+ corners in the match49%

Cards

Expected total cards4.6

2.5+ cards in the match48%