Match summary
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol (La Liga), 30/08/2026, finished 2-1: Real Sociedad won.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Real Sociedad
51%
Draw
28%
Espanyol
22%
Actual result: Real Sociedad 2 – 1 Espanyol · Real Sociedad winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Sociedad, negative favours Espanyol) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Real Sociedad - Espanyol)+0.65
Expected total goals2.72
Expected goals Real Sociedad / Espanyol1.69 / 1.04
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.3% / 45.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.3%
Over 2.5 goals 51.2%
Over 3.5 goals 29.1%
First half
First-half result (Real Sociedad / draw / Espanyol)37.2% / 43.8% / 19.0%
A goal in the first half69.1%
Two or more in the first half36.2%
Half-time then full-time
Real Sociedad lead at half-time then Real Sociedad win31.8%
Level at half-time then Real Sociedad win17.8%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Real Sociedad's side
Real Sociedad −2.020.5%
Real Sociedad −1.7524.5%
Real Sociedad −1.528.5%
Real Sociedad −1.2534.1%
Real Sociedad −1.039.7%
Real Sociedad −0.7545.3%
Real Sociedad −0.550.8%
Real Sociedad −0.2557.7%
Real Sociedad draw no bet (0.0)64.6%
Real Sociedad +0.2571.5%
Real Sociedad +0.578.4%
Real Sociedad +0.7581.7%
Real Sociedad +1.084.9%
Real Sociedad +1.591.5%
Real Sociedad +2.094.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Real Sociedad win1.97
Draw3.63
Espanyol win4.63
Over 2.51.95
Under 2.52.05
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Real Sociedad wins by more than 1 goals29%
Espanyol wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards4.8
2.5+ cards in the match52%
Probability trajectory · full match
Next fixtures of both teams
- vs Malaga (away)Sun 18/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
- vs Lillestrom (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
- vs Atletico MadridSat 17/10, 19:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 18% / 25% / 57%
- vs Racing Santander (away)Sat 24/10, 21:15 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
Other matches on 30/08 (GMT+7)
- Juventus vs Parma01:45 · Serie A2–0
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid02:30 · La Liga1–3
- Chelsea vs Brighton20:00 · Premier League4–3
- Leeds vs Brentford20:00 · Premier League1–1
- Paris FC vs Nice20:00 · Ligue 13–0
- Sunderland vs Fulham20:00 · Premier League1–0
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.
La Liga table, latest
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | +5 | 19 |
| ... | ||||
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| ... | ||||
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | -5 | 8 |