US MLS

Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake (US MLS), 23/08/2026, finished 2-1: Orlando City won. Before the match Jarvis gave Orlando City 48%, the draw 23% and Real Salt Lake 29%; the actual result had a 48% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Orlando City

48%

Draw

23%

Real Salt Lake

29%

Actual result: Orlando City 2 – 1 Real Salt Lake · Orlando City winJarvis gave this outcome: 48% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Orlando City, negative favours Real Salt Lake) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Orlando City - Real Salt Lake)+0.47

Expected total goals3.37

Expected goals Orlando City / Real Salt Lake1.92 / 1.45

Both teams to score (yes / no)65.9% / 34.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 85.5%

Over 2.5 goals 65.5%

Over 3.5 goals 43.6%

First half

First-half result (Orlando City / draw / Real Salt Lake)37.5% / 37.5% / 25.0%

A goal in the first half77.4%

Two or more in the first half45.5%

Half-time then full-time

Orlando City lead at half-time then Orlando City win30.2%

Real Salt Lake lead at half-time then Real Salt Lake win16.8%

Level at half-time then Orlando City win15.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Orlando City's side

Orlando City −2.020.2%

Orlando City −1.7523.9%

Orlando City −1.527.5%

Orlando City −1.2532.7%

Orlando City −1.037.9%

Orlando City −0.7543.0%

Orlando City −0.548.2%

Orlando City −0.2554.0%

Orlando City draw no bet (0.0)59.8%

Orlando City +0.2565.6%

Orlando City +0.571.4%

Orlando City +0.7575.2%

Orlando City +1.079.1%

Orlando City +1.586.8%

Orlando City +2.091.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Orlando City win2.07

Draw4.32

Real Salt Lake win3.49

Over 2.51.53

Under 2.52.90

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Orlando City wins by more than 1 goals28%

Real Salt Lake wins by more than 1 goals13%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 23/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.