Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Paderborn
23%
Draw
23%
Hoffenheim
54%
Actual result: Paderborn 3 – 1 Hoffenheim · Paderborn winJarvis gave this outcome: 23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Paderborn, negative favours Hoffenheim) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Paderborn - Hoffenheim)-0.76
Expected total goals3.51
Expected goals Paderborn / Hoffenheim1.38 / 2.13
Both teams to score (yes / no)67.0% / 33.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.6%
Over 2.5 goals 68.1%
Over 3.5 goals 46.6%
First half
First-half result (Paderborn / draw / Hoffenheim)21.3% / 37.9% / 40.8%
A goal in the first half77.9%
Two or more in the first half48.4%
Half-time then full-time
Hoffenheim lead at half-time then Hoffenheim win34.5%
Level at half-time then Hoffenheim win16.7%
Paderborn lead at half-time then Paderborn win13.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Paderborn's side
Paderborn −2.07.0%
Paderborn −1.758.7%
Paderborn −1.510.5%
Paderborn −1.2513.7%
Paderborn −1.016.9%
Paderborn −0.7520.1%
Paderborn −0.523.3%
Paderborn −0.2529.0%
Paderborn draw no bet (0.0)34.8%
Paderborn +0.2540.5%
Paderborn +0.546.3%
Paderborn +0.7551.4%
Paderborn +1.056.5%
Paderborn +1.566.8%
Paderborn +2.075.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Paderborn win4.29
Draw4.36
Hoffenheim win1.86
Over 2.51.47
Under 2.53.14
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Paderborn wins by more than 1 goals10%
Hoffenheim wins by more than 1 goals33%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match49%