Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Paris FC
38%
Draw
27%
Lyon
35%
Actual result: Paris FC 0 – 0 Lyon · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Paris FC, negative favours Lyon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Paris FC - Lyon)+0.07
Expected total goals3.11
Expected goals Paris FC / Lyon1.59 / 1.52
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.0% / 36.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.4%
Over 2.5 goals 60.2%
Over 3.5 goals 37.8%
First half
First-half result (Paris FC / draw / Lyon)29.9% / 42.1% / 28.0%
A goal in the first half73.4%
Two or more in the first half42.8%
Half-time then full-time
Paris FC lead at half-time then Paris FC win22.9%
Lyon lead at half-time then Lyon win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Paris FC's side
Paris FC −2.013.8%
Paris FC −1.7516.8%
Paris FC −1.519.7%
Paris FC −1.2524.3%
Paris FC −1.028.8%
Paris FC −0.7533.3%
Paris FC −0.537.9%
Paris FC −0.2544.7%
Paris FC draw no bet (0.0)51.5%
Paris FC +0.2558.3%
Paris FC +0.565.1%
Paris FC +0.7569.4%
Paris FC +1.073.7%
Paris FC +1.582.4%
Paris FC +2.087.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Paris FC win2.64
Draw3.68
Lyon win2.86
Over 2.51.66
Under 2.52.51
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Paris FC wins by more than 1 goals20%
Lyon wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards2.2
2.5+ cards in the match36%