Spanish La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander prediction

3 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander (La Liga), 05/09/2026, finished 3-2: Rayo Vallecano won. Before the match Jarvis gave Rayo Vallecano 47%, the draw 28% and Racing Santander 25%; the actual result had a 47% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Rayo Vallecano

47%

Draw

28%

Racing Santander

25%

Actual result: Rayo Vallecano 3 – 2 Racing Santander · Rayo Vallecano winJarvis gave this outcome: 47% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Rayo Vallecano, negative favours Racing Santander) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander)+0.49

Expected total goals2.81

Expected goals Rayo Vallecano / Racing Santander1.65 / 1.16

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.3% / 42.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.9%

Over 2.5 goals 53.3%

Over 3.5 goals 31.0%

First half

First-half result (Rayo Vallecano / draw / Racing Santander)35.0% / 43.7% / 21.4%

A goal in the first half70.1%

Two or more in the first half37.8%

Half-time then full-time

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time then Rayo Vallecano win29.0%

Level at half-time then draw17.2%

Level at half-time then Rayo Vallecano win16.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Rayo Vallecano's side

Rayo Vallecano −2.018.3%

Rayo Vallecano −1.7522.0%

Rayo Vallecano −1.525.7%

Rayo Vallecano −1.2531.0%

Rayo Vallecano −1.036.3%

Rayo Vallecano −0.7541.6%

Rayo Vallecano −0.546.9%

Rayo Vallecano −0.2553.9%

Rayo Vallecano draw no bet (0.0)60.9%

Rayo Vallecano +0.2567.9%

Rayo Vallecano +0.574.9%

Rayo Vallecano +0.7578.5%

Rayo Vallecano +1.082.1%

Rayo Vallecano +1.589.3%

Rayo Vallecano +2.093.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Rayo Vallecano win2.13

Draw3.57

Racing Santander win3.98

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.52.14

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by more than 1 goals26%

Racing Santander wins by more than 1 goals11%

Corners

Expected total corners10.4

6.5+ corners in the match47%

Cards

Expected total cards4.7

2.5+ cards in the match50%