Spanish La Liga

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

Real Madrid

4 – 1

Full-time

Rayo Vallecano

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Real Madrid

85%

Draw

10%

Rayo Vallecano

Actual result: Real Madrid 4 – 1 Rayo Vallecano · Real Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 85% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Madrid, negative favours Rayo Vallecano) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano)+2.52

Expected total goals3.97

Expected goals Real Madrid / Rayo Vallecano3.25 / 0.72

Both teams to score (yes / no)49.5% / 50.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 90.6%

Over 2.5 goals 75.8%

Over 3.5 goals 56.1%

First half

First-half result (Real Madrid / draw / Rayo Vallecano)66.3% / 25.6% / 8.1%

A goal in the first half83.3%

Two or more in the first half53.3%

Half-time then full-time

Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win63.7%

Level at half-time then Real Madrid win18.4%

Level at half-time then draw5.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Real Madrid's side

Real Madrid −2.058.3%

Real Madrid −1.7563.5%

Real Madrid −1.568.6%

Real Madrid −1.2572.7%

Real Madrid −1.076.9%

Real Madrid −0.7581.1%

Real Madrid −0.585.3%

Real Madrid −0.2587.7%

Real Madrid draw no bet (0.0)90.2%

Real Madrid +0.2592.6%

Real Madrid +0.595.0%

Real Madrid +0.7595.9%

Real Madrid +1.096.9%

Real Madrid +1.598.7%

Real Madrid +2.099.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Real Madrid win1.17

Draw10.37

Rayo Vallecano win19.91

Over 2.51.32

Under 2.54.13

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals68%

Rayo Vallecano wins by more than 1 goals1%

Corners

Expected total corners10.7

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards3.2

2.5+ cards in the match39%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match