Spanish La Liga

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction

Real Sociedad

0 – 3

Full-time

Atletico Madrid

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Real Sociedad

28%

Draw

28%

Atletico Madrid

44%

Actual result: Real Sociedad 0 – 3 Atletico Madrid · Atletico Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 44% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Sociedad, negative favours Atletico Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Real Sociedad - Atletico Madrid)-0.37

Expected total goals2.89

Expected goals Real Sociedad / Atletico Madrid1.26 / 1.63

Both teams to score (yes / no)59.3% / 40.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.1%

Over 2.5 goals 55.2%

Over 3.5 goals 32.9%

First half

First-half result (Real Sociedad / draw / Atletico Madrid)23.4% / 43.0% / 33.6%

A goal in the first half71.2%

Two or more in the first half39.0%

Half-time then full-time

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win27.2%

Level at half-time then draw16.7%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time then Real Sociedad win16.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Real Sociedad's side

Real Sociedad −2.08.4%

Real Sociedad −1.7510.4%

Real Sociedad −1.512.5%

Real Sociedad −1.2516.4%

Real Sociedad −1.020.3%

Real Sociedad −0.7524.2%

Real Sociedad −0.528.1%

Real Sociedad −0.2535.0%

Real Sociedad draw no bet (0.0)41.9%

Real Sociedad +0.2548.8%

Real Sociedad +0.555.7%

Real Sociedad +0.7560.8%

Real Sociedad +1.065.9%

Real Sociedad +1.576.2%

Real Sociedad +2.083.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Real Sociedad win3.56

Draw3.62

Atletico Madrid win2.26

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.52.23

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Real Sociedad wins by more than 1 goals13%

Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals24%

Corners

Expected total corners9.8

6.5+ corners in the match52%

Cards

Expected total cards4.4

2.5+ cards in the match45%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match