Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sassuolo
16%
Draw
25%
Juventus
59%
Actual result: Sassuolo 3 – 2 Juventus · Sassuolo winJarvis gave this outcome: 16%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sassuolo, negative favours Juventus) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sassuolo - Juventus)-0.96
Expected total goals2.65
Expected goals Sassuolo / Juventus0.85 / 1.80
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.7% / 51.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.2%
Over 2.5 goals 49.4%
Over 3.5 goals 27.5%
First half
First-half result (Sassuolo / draw / Juventus)15.3% / 42.2% / 42.4%
A goal in the first half68.8%
Two or more in the first half34.3%
Half-time then full-time
Juventus lead at half-time then Juventus win37.6%
Level at half-time then Juventus win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sassuolo's side
Sassuolo −2.03.3%
Sassuolo −1.754.3%
Sassuolo −1.55.4%
Sassuolo −1.258.1%
Sassuolo −1.010.8%
Sassuolo −0.7513.5%
Sassuolo −0.516.2%
Sassuolo −0.2522.4%
Sassuolo draw no bet (0.0)28.6%
Sassuolo +0.2534.8%
Sassuolo +0.541.0%
Sassuolo +0.7547.1%
Sassuolo +1.053.2%
Sassuolo +1.565.3%
Sassuolo +2.074.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sassuolo win6.15
Draw4.04
Juventus win1.70
Over 2.52.03
Under 2.51.97
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sassuolo wins by more than 1 goals5%
Juventus wins by more than 1 goals35%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match43%