Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Schalke 04
49%
Draw
26%
Elversberg
25%
Actual result: Schalke 04 0 – 0 Elversberg · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Schalke 04, negative favours Elversberg) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Schalke 04 - Elversberg)+0.57
Expected total goals3.10
Expected goals Schalke 04 / Elversberg1.83 / 1.27
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.9% / 38.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.1%
Over 2.5 goals 59.9%
Over 3.5 goals 37.5%
First half
First-half result (Schalke 04 / draw / Elversberg)37.0% / 41.4% / 21.7%
A goal in the first half73.5%
Two or more in the first half42.4%
Half-time then full-time
Schalke 04 lead at half-time then Schalke 04 win30.8%
Level at half-time then Schalke 04 win16.6%
Level at half-time then draw15.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Schalke 04's side
Schalke 04 −2.020.6%
Schalke 04 −1.7524.5%
Schalke 04 −1.528.3%
Schalke 04 −1.2533.5%
Schalke 04 −1.038.7%
Schalke 04 −0.7543.9%
Schalke 04 −0.549.1%
Schalke 04 −0.2555.6%
Schalke 04 draw no bet (0.0)62.1%
Schalke 04 +0.2568.6%
Schalke 04 +0.575.1%
Schalke 04 +0.7578.6%
Schalke 04 +1.082.1%
Schalke 04 +1.589.0%
Schalke 04 +2.092.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Schalke 04 win2.04
Draw3.85
Elversberg win4.02
Over 2.51.67
Under 2.52.49
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Schalke 04 wins by more than 1 goals28%
Elversberg wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match49%