Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sevilla
10%
Draw
14%
Barcelona
76%
Actual result: Sevilla 1 – 3 Barcelona · Barcelona winJarvis gave this outcome: 76% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sevilla, negative favours Barcelona) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sevilla - Barcelona)-1.84
Expected total goals3.78
Expected goals Sevilla / Barcelona0.97 / 2.81
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.3% / 41.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.0%
Over 2.5 goals 72.8%
Over 3.5 goals 52.2%
First half
First-half result (Sevilla / draw / Barcelona)12.9% / 29.6% / 57.5%
A goal in the first half81.8%
Two or more in the first half50.6%
Half-time then full-time
Barcelona lead at half-time then Barcelona win53.2%
Level at half-time then Barcelona win18.5%
Level at half-time then draw7.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sevilla's side
Sevilla −2.02.1%
Sevilla −1.752.7%
Sevilla −1.53.3%
Sevilla −1.255.0%
Sevilla −1.06.8%
Sevilla −0.758.6%
Sevilla −0.510.3%
Sevilla −0.2513.9%
Sevilla draw no bet (0.0)17.4%
Sevilla +0.2520.9%
Sevilla +0.524.5%
Sevilla +0.7529.5%
Sevilla +1.034.6%
Sevilla +1.544.7%
Sevilla +2.055.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sevilla win9.69
Draw7.07
Barcelona win1.32
Over 2.51.37
Under 2.53.67
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sevilla wins by more than 1 goals3%
Barcelona wins by more than 1 goals55%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%