Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sunderland
14%
Draw
25%
Arsenal
61%
Actual result: Sunderland 0 – 2 Arsenal · Arsenal winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sunderland, negative favours Arsenal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sunderland - Arsenal)-1.00
Expected total goals2.33
Expected goals Sunderland / Arsenal0.66 / 1.67
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.9% / 60.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 68.2%
Over 2.5 goals 41.3%
Over 3.5 goals 20.7%
First half
First-half result (Sunderland / draw / Arsenal)13.1% / 44.1% / 42.8%
A goal in the first half64.6%
Two or more in the first half28.6%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win38.5%
Level at half-time then Arsenal win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw17.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sunderland's side
Sunderland −2.02.3%
Sunderland −1.753.0%
Sunderland −1.53.8%
Sunderland −1.256.3%
Sunderland −1.08.9%
Sunderland −0.7511.4%
Sunderland −0.514.0%
Sunderland −0.2520.2%
Sunderland draw no bet (0.0)26.4%
Sunderland +0.2532.7%
Sunderland +0.538.9%
Sunderland +0.7545.5%
Sunderland +1.052.1%
Sunderland +1.565.3%
Sunderland +2.074.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sunderland win7.15
Draw4.01
Arsenal win1.64
Over 2.52.42
Under 2.51.70
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sunderland wins by more than 1 goals4%
Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals35%
Corners
Expected total corners8.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%