Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Toulouse
57%
Draw
25%
Le Havre
19%
Actual result: Toulouse 3 – 2 Le Havre · Toulouse winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Toulouse, negative favours Le Havre) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Toulouse - Le Havre)+0.88
Expected total goals2.91
Expected goals Toulouse / Le Havre1.89 / 1.01
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.3% / 44.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.8%
Over 2.5 goals 55.6%
Over 3.5 goals 33.2%
First half
First-half result (Toulouse / draw / Le Havre)41.6% / 41.0% / 17.4%
A goal in the first half71.8%
Two or more in the first half38.8%
Half-time then full-time
Toulouse lead at half-time then Toulouse win36.3%
Level at half-time then Toulouse win18.6%
Level at half-time then draw14.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Toulouse's side
Toulouse −2.025.1%
Toulouse −1.7529.5%
Toulouse −1.533.9%
Toulouse −1.2539.7%
Toulouse −1.045.4%
Toulouse −0.7551.1%
Toulouse −0.556.8%
Toulouse −0.2562.9%
Toulouse draw no bet (0.0)69.0%
Toulouse +0.2575.2%
Toulouse +0.581.3%
Toulouse +0.7584.2%
Toulouse +1.087.2%
Toulouse +1.593.0%
Toulouse +2.095.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Toulouse win1.76
Draw4.08
Le Havre win5.35
Over 2.51.80
Under 2.52.25
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Toulouse wins by more than 1 goals34%
Le Havre wins by more than 1 goals7%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match49%