Italian Serie B

US Cremonese vs Modena prediction

0 – 3
Full-time

Match summary

US Cremonese vs Modena (Italian Serie B), 29/08/2026, finished 0-3: Modena won. Before the match Jarvis gave US Cremonese 41%, the draw 32% and Modena 27%; the actual result had a 27% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.3.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
US Cremonese
41%
Draw
32%
Modena
27%
Actual result: US Cremonese 0 – 3 Modena · Modena winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours US Cremonese, negative favours Modena) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (US Cremonese - Modena)+0.29
Expected total goals2.35
Expected goals US Cremonese / Modena1.32 / 1.03
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.4% / 50.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.3%
Over 2.5 goals 41.7%
Over 3.5 goals 21.1%
First half
First-half result (US Cremonese / draw / Modena)30.2% / 48.4% / 21.4%
A goal in the first half63.6%
Two or more in the first half30.2%
Half-time then full-time
US Cremonese lead at half-time then US Cremonese win24.7%
Level at half-time then draw21.3%
Level at half-time then US Cremonese win16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from US Cremonese's side
US Cremonese −2.013.6%
US Cremonese −1.7516.8%
US Cremonese −1.520.0%
US Cremonese −1.2525.3%
US Cremonese −1.030.5%
US Cremonese −0.7535.8%
US Cremonese −0.541.1%
US Cremonese −0.2549.1%
US Cremonese draw no bet (0.0)57.2%
US Cremonese +0.2565.2%
US Cremonese +0.573.3%
US Cremonese +0.7577.3%
US Cremonese +1.081.2%
US Cremonese +1.589.2%
US Cremonese +2.093.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
US Cremonese win2.43
Draw3.10
Modena win3.75
Over 2.52.40
Under 2.51.71

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
US Cremonese wins by more than 1 goals20%
Modena wins by more than 1 goals11%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 29/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.