French Ligue 1

Lille vs Paris St-G prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Lille vs Paris St-G (Ligue 1), 29/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Lille 18%, the draw 25% and Paris St-G 58%; the actual result had a 25% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lille

18%

Draw

25%

Paris St-G

58%

Actual result: Lille 2 – 2 Paris St-G · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 25%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lille, negative favours Paris St-G) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lille - Paris St-G)-0.94

Expected total goals2.90

Expected goals Lille / Paris St-G0.98 / 1.92

Both teams to score (yes / no)54.8% / 45.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 79.9%

Over 2.5 goals 55.5%

Over 3.5 goals 33.1%

First half

First-half result (Lille / draw / Paris St-G)16.6% / 41.1% / 42.3%

A goal in the first half71.6%

Two or more in the first half38.9%

Half-time then full-time

Paris St-G lead at half-time then Paris St-G win37.2%

Level at half-time then Paris St-G win19.0%

Level at half-time then draw15.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lille's side

Lille −2.04.1%

Lille −1.755.3%

Lille −1.56.5%

Lille −1.259.3%

Lille −1.012.1%

Lille −0.7514.8%

Lille −0.517.6%

Lille −0.2523.7%

Lille draw no bet (0.0)29.8%

Lille +0.2536.0%

Lille +0.542.1%

Lille +0.7547.8%

Lille +1.053.5%

Lille +1.564.9%

Lille +2.074.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lille win5.68

Draw4.08

Paris St-G win1.73

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.25

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lille wins by more than 1 goals7%

Paris St-G wins by more than 1 goals35%

Corners

Expected total corners9.5

6.5+ corners in the match48%

Cards

Expected total cards2.1

2.5+ cards in the match34%