English Premier League

Crystal Palace vs Man City prediction

1 – 4

Full-time

Match summary

Crystal Palace vs Man City (Premier League), 29/08/2026, finished 1-4: Man City won. Before the match Jarvis gave Crystal Palace 18%, the draw 24% and Man City 58%; the actual result had a 58% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9. Last 10 meetings: Crystal Palace won 0, 3 drawn, Man City won 7.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Crystal Palace

18%

Draw

24%

Man City

58%

Actual result: Crystal Palace 1 – 4 Man City · Man City winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓

Probability trajectory · full match

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Crystal Palace, negative favours Man City) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Tap a row to see how that market has moved.

Supremacy (Crystal Palace - Man City)-0.93

Expected total goals2.88

Expected goals Crystal Palace / Man City0.98 / 1.90

Market-standard price (decimal)

Crystal Palace win5.55

Draw4.20

Man City win1.72

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.22

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 2.5 goals54.9%

Over 3.5 goals32.5%

Over 1.5 goals79.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Crystal Palace's side

Crystal Palace +0.7547.7%

Crystal Palace +1.053.5%

Crystal Palace +0.541.8%

Crystal Palace +0.2535.9%

Crystal Palace +1.565.2%

Crystal Palace draw no bet (0.0)29.9%

Crystal Palace +2.074.2%

Crystal Palace −0.2524.0%

Crystal Palace −0.518.0%

Crystal Palace −0.7515.1%

Crystal Palace −1.012.3%

Crystal Palace −1.259.4%

Crystal Palace −1.56.5%

Crystal Palace −1.755.3%

Crystal Palace −2.04.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Goal margin

Crystal Palace wins by more than 1 goals6%

Man City wins by more than 1 goals35%

Both teams to score (yes / no)53.9% / 46.1%

First half

First-half result (Crystal Palace / draw / Man City)17.0% / 40.4% / 42.6%

A goal in the first half71.7%

Two or more in the first half38.0%

Half-time then full-time

Man City lead at half-time then Man City win37.2%

Level at half-time then Man City win18.8%

Level at half-time then draw14.4%