Spanish La Liga

Alaves vs Villarreal prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Alaves vs Villarreal (La Liga), 29/08/2026, finished 1-0: Alaves won. Before the match Jarvis gave Alaves 30%, the draw 28% and Villarreal 42%; the actual result had a 30% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Alaves

30%

Draw

28%

Villarreal

42%

Actual result: Alaves 1 – 0 Villarreal · Alaves winJarvis gave this outcome: 30%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Alaves, negative favours Villarreal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Alaves - Villarreal)-0.28

Expected total goals2.77

Expected goals Alaves / Villarreal1.25 / 1.52

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.2% / 42.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 77.8%

Over 2.5 goals 52.4%

Over 3.5 goals 30.2%

First half

First-half result (Alaves / draw / Villarreal)24.3% / 43.6% / 32.1%

A goal in the first half69.9%

Two or more in the first half36.8%

Half-time then full-time

Villarreal lead at half-time then Villarreal win25.7%

Alaves lead at half-time then Alaves win17.4%

Level at half-time then draw17.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Alaves's side

Alaves −2.08.8%

Alaves −1.7511.0%

Alaves −1.513.2%

Alaves −1.2517.3%

Alaves −1.021.4%

Alaves −0.7525.6%

Alaves −0.529.7%

Alaves −0.2536.7%

Alaves draw no bet (0.0)43.7%

Alaves +0.2550.7%

Alaves +0.557.7%

Alaves +0.7562.9%

Alaves +1.068.0%

Alaves +1.578.3%

Alaves +2.084.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Alaves win3.37

Draw3.57

Villarreal win2.37

Over 2.51.91

Under 2.52.10

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Alaves wins by more than 1 goals13%

Villarreal wins by more than 1 goals22%

Corners

Expected total corners9.7

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards3.9

2.5+ cards in the match55%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Alaves

vs Celta Vigo (away)Sun 18/10, 21:15 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 25% / 31% / 44%
vs MalagaSat 24/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Villarreal

vs ElcheSat 17/10, 21:15 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
vs Liverpool (away)Wed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Other matches on 29/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

La Liga table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	+5	19
...
6	Real Sociedad	8	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo	9	+1	11
...
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Villarreal	8	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	0	8

See the full La Liga table